Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-08 00:18Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations for short-term coal price increases are not significantly different, but the divergence lies in the future trends of coal prices during the off-season, which will impact next year's long-term contract negotiations [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Even without the supply shock from the current "overproduction crackdown," coal consumption is expected to increase, leading to a tightening of the supply-demand balance by 110 million tons from Q2 to Q3 2025 [1] - The marginal tightening from Q2 to Q3 2025 is estimated to be between 120 million to 160 million tons, providing support for a sustained rebound in coal prices [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Market Conditions - The profitability sensitivity analysis of leading coal companies suggests that Q2 2025 may mark the earnings bottom for these companies [1] - Anticipated potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year are expected to further enhance the allocation value of dividend-paying sectors [1] - A rebound in coal prices above the port long-term contract prices will benefit the fulfillment rate of long-term contracts and the stability of cash flows for leading companies, reinforcing the dividend logic [1]