Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-08 00:28Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the CCPI-crude oil price spread was approximately 294 at the end of July 2025, which is below the 30th percentile since 2012, reflecting high volatility in oil prices due to ongoing global macroeconomic tensions [1] - The chemical products market is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, leading to a decrease in price spreads for most downstream chemical products [1] - The report suggests that the chemical industry has reached a profit bottom in recent years, and with policy guidance, supply-side adjustments are expected to accelerate, potentially improving profitability for bulk chemical products [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and the U.S., along with economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, is expected to drive demand growth, making exports a significant growth engine for the domestic chemical industry [1] - In the first half of 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of capital expenditure in the supply side of the industry turned negative for the first time since early 2021, indicating a faster adjustment on the supply side [1] - The second half of 2025 may see a recovery starting point, with downstream sectors experiencing cost relief and demand improvement likely to recover first [1]