Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang·2025-08-08 01:36Overview - Metallocene polyethylene (mPE) is recognized for its narrow molecular weight distribution, regular molecular structure, high mechanical strength, excellent optical properties, and good processing stability, earning it the nickname "soft gold" in the polyolefin sector [1][16] - The demand for high-performance materials, particularly in packaging, agricultural films, and pipes, has been increasing in China due to economic growth and rising living standards. The apparent consumption of mPE in China is projected to reach approximately 3 million tons in 2024, with imports hitting 2.72 million tons, resulting in a high import dependency of 90.67% [1][16] Industry Background - The production of mPE is supported by national policies aimed at developing new materials, with the "Production of Metallocene Polyethylene and Other Special Polyolefins" listed as a key development area in the "Industrial Structure Adjustment Directory (2024)" [8] - Continuous advancements in production technology and catalyst development have allowed domestic companies to narrow the gap with international standards [8] Industry Chain - The upstream of the mPE industry includes suppliers of raw materials like ethylene and propylene, as well as suppliers of catalysts, antioxidants, stabilizers, and production equipment. The midstream involves the production and processing of mPE, while the downstream encompasses various application markets, including food packaging films, stretch films, and pipes [12] Consumption Structure - Food packaging films represent the largest consumption market for mPE in China, accounting for 29.4% of total consumption, followed by stretch films and greenhouse films at approximately 19% and 18.6%, respectively [14] Competitive Landscape - The mPE production technology is complex, and China has historically relied heavily on imports. Major suppliers include ExxonMobil (40% market share), Dow Chemical (30%), and Mitsui Chemicals (13%) [18] - Domestic producers include Sinopec, PetroChina, and Shenyang Chemical, with a projected total production of about 350,000 tons in 2024. Sinopec is expected to account for 30% and PetroChina for 65% of this production [20] - There are currently seven mPE projects under construction in China, with a combined designed capacity exceeding 3.7 million tons, which is expected to alter the domestic supply landscape and reduce import dependency [20] Development Trends - The number of mPE projects under construction indicates a future increase in production capacity, which will help reduce import reliance and enhance domestic competitiveness. The industry is also moving towards green production and recycling, with a focus on energy conservation and sustainable product design [22]