Supply and Demand - As of August 7, PTA supply has improved with the restart of 150,000 tons and 120,000 tons facilities by Taiwan Chemical, while Jiaxing Petrochemical's 220 tons facility is under scheduled maintenance. Yisheng Materials' 720,000 tons facility has restored its load, and INEOS's 235,000 tons facility is operating at reduced capacity. Overall, PTA load has recovered to 76.2%, an increase of 3.6% [3] - On the demand side, new facilities that started at the end of July and previously shut down facilities have increased production. Additionally, some factories in long and short fiber sectors have slightly increased their load, with polyester's overall load rising to approximately 88.8%, an increase of 0.7%. However, the order atmosphere for grey cloth remains weak, and the market's inventory turnover is slow, limiting overall operating rates [3] Profitability - As of August 7, PTA's spot processing fee is around 166 yuan per ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures is 263 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - Despite a recent improvement in PTA supply and demand in August, the outlook remains weak due to the commissioning of new PTA facilities by Hailun Petrochemical and a continued weak order situation at the terminal. The PTA basis is expected to operate weakly. Overall, with a weak supply-demand outlook and limited support from crude oil, the rebound potential for PTA is insufficient. However, there is still some short-term support due to the overall improvement in domestic commodity sentiment and low PTA processing fees [4] - The strategy suggests a short-term trading range for TA between 4600-4800, with a recommendation for TA1-5 to hedge against high prices and to expand PTA processing fees at low levels around 250 [4]
PTA：低加工费但成本端支撑有限 短期PTA震荡对待
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-08 02:12