政策转向难阻太阳能狂飙 高盛预测2030年装机量突破914吉瓦

Core Viewpoint - Despite policy shifts in major economies, the global solar industry is expected to maintain rapid growth, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 57% increase in global solar installed capacity by 2030 compared to 2024 levels [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts that global solar installed capacity will reach 914 gigawatts by 2030, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [1] - The solar power sector has achieved a cumulative generation of 2,129 terawatt-hours over 11 years, contributing 8% to global electricity supply as of July 2025 [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent policy adjustments in China and the U.S. may introduce short-term volatility, but long-term prospects for solar energy remain strong [1][4] - China's cancellation of minimum purchase prices and grid capacity guarantees for new projects may impact the market, while U.S. projects approved before mid-2026 will still benefit from tax credits due to "safe harbor" provisions [4] Group 3: Structural Factors Supporting Solar Energy - Three structural factors underpinning the long-term development of solar energy include: 1. A positive feedback loop of declining costs, where each doubling of cumulative production results in a 20% decrease in solar panel costs, outpacing other modern investment goods [8] 2. Zero marginal fuel cost advantage, as no additional investment is required for each unit of electricity produced beyond initial installation and maintenance [11] 3. Modular characteristics of solar panels, allowing for easier construction of distributed grids compared to traditional large-scale power plants [11] Group 4: Supply and Demand Characteristics - There is no bottleneck in global solar panel supply, with China's production capacity alone sufficient to meet double the global demand in 2024 [11] - The growth bottleneck for the industry is more likely to stem from policy fluctuations and grid absorption capacity rather than equipment supply limitations, indicating resilience in the solar sector despite subsidy reductions [11]