石油和化工行业：7月市场信心提振 景气指数回升

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 99.02 in July 2025, an increase of 1.18 percentage points from June, driven by stabilized crude oil prices and domestic "anti-involution" measures that boosted market confidence [2][9][11] - The industry is experiencing a divergence between upstream and downstream sectors, with policy support and cost improvements being the main positive factors, while terminal demand recovery remains to be observed [2][9] Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's prosperity index increased by 1.45 percentage points to 99.15, benefiting from stabilized crude oil prices, with WTI oil prices ranging from $64.9 to $70.5 per barrel in July [11][14] - The fuel processing industry saw a rise in its index by 0.93 percentage points to 101.88, supported by stable production and increased inventory turnover due to summer travel demand [11][14] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector experienced a significant increase of 2.23 percentage points to 100.84, driven by rising product prices and improved cost-profit margins [11][14] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector's index decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 93.79, indicating a cooling trend due to insufficient demand recovery [11][14] Group 2: Policy and Market Sentiment - The central economic committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality, which is expected to enhance the industry structure and market sentiment [3][15] - The delay of the "tariff deadline" by Trump from July 9 to August 1 has led to a cautious optimism in the market, with the impact of tariffs on the chemical industry being relatively limited [4][16] - The upcoming OPEC+ production increase may exert downward pressure on oil prices, but the approaching consumption peak season in September and October is expected to boost production activity and inventory turnover [5][17]