英国央行惊险降息至4% 内部分歧暴露政策困境

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has made a historic decision to lower interest rates to 4.0% with a close vote of 5 to 4, indicating significant internal divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The interest rate cut was passed with a narrow margin, highlighting serious disagreements among committee members [1] - Four members voted to keep rates unchanged due to concerns over inflation risks [1] Group 2: Inflation Forecast - The Bank of England has raised its inflation peak forecast to 4%, which is double its target of 2% [1] - It is now expected that inflation will not return to the target until the second quarter of 2027, a delay of three months from previous predictions [1] Group 3: Economic Growth Outlook - Despite the Bank's prediction that economic growth will rebound from 0.1% to 0.3% in the third quarter, the increased inflation expectations and voting divisions have created uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [1] - The Bank's statement suggests that the current rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end, posing challenges for the government focused on stimulating economic growth [1] Group 4: Market Reaction - The GBP/USD pair showed strong bullish momentum but has not yet entered the overbought territory, indicating potential for short-term upward movement [1] - The daily RSI has rebounded from below 40 to around 55, confirming an increase in rebound momentum [1]