专访瑞士百达美国高级经济学家崔晓：特朗普施压美联储相当于打开“潘多拉魔盒”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting the political dynamics and implications for monetary policy independence [1][2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, including the nomination of a "shadow chairman," face legal challenges due to the established independence of the Fed [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that past presidents have struggled to directly intervene in Fed policies without facing significant backlash [13][14]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Market Expectations - The political pressure from Trump may not successfully lead to immediate rate cuts, as the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members remain cautious [8][9]. - Market expectations are shifting, with investors pricing in potential rate cuts after Powell's term ends, reflecting concerns over the Fed's independence [8][12]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Fed Leadership - Several candidates for the "shadow chairman" position are discussed, with varying degrees of dovishness compared to Powell, but none are expected to fully comply with Trump's demands [6][7][8]. - The influence of these candidates on future monetary policy remains uncertain, as the ultimate decision-making power lies with Powell and the current FOMC [9][10]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Trump's strategy to lower long-term rates may backfire if it leads to increased inflation expectations, which could result in higher long-term rates instead [9][10]. - The potential for significant changes in the Fed's operational framework raises concerns about the long-term implications for monetary policy and economic stability [11][12]. Group 5: Investor Strategies - Investors are advised to consider the current environment where rate cuts are expected to be limited before Powell's departure, with more substantial cuts anticipated afterward [16][17]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) presents opportunities for investors to position themselves accordingly [16][17].