欧央行年内第二次降息 全球宽松周期要来了

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to lower its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, the refinancing rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%, and the marginal lending rate by 60 basis points to 3.90% [2][4] - This marks the second rate cut by the ECB in 2023, following a previous cut in June [2][4] - Analysts suggest that the ECB's decision aligns with weak economic indicators and declining inflation data, making September a suitable time for further easing [2][5] Economic Indicators - The ECB forecasts overall inflation rates for the Eurozone over the next three years at 2.50%, 2.20%, and 1.90%, unchanged from previous predictions [4] - Core inflation rates are projected at 2.90%, 2.30%, and 2.00%, slightly revised from earlier estimates [4] - Economic growth forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been downgraded to 0.80%, 1.30%, and 1.50%, respectively, reflecting a weakening internal demand [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the ECB's announcement, major European stock indices saw gains, with the French CAC40, German DAX, and Italian FTSE MIB all closing higher [6] - Precious metals like gold and silver also experienced price increases, with gold closing at $2,558 per ounce, up 1.88% [6] Future Outlook - The next ECB meeting is scheduled for October 17, with speculation about potential further rate cuts [8] - Analysts predict that the ECB may continue to lower rates, possibly reaching levels between 2% and 2.25% by the end of 2025 [8][9] - The ECB's approach will remain data-dependent, with no predetermined path for future rate adjustments [8][9]