国内企业减产预期较强 不锈钢期货盘面轻仓做多

Market Overview - As of August 7, the mainstream price of Wuxi Hongwang's 304 cold-rolled coil is between 12,950-13,050 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 50 CNY/ton or 0.39% from the end of July, but down 5.80% year-on-year [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 103,226 tons of stainless steel warehouse receipts, an increase of 423 tons from the previous trading day [1] - A significant reduction in production has been announced by a Shandong hot-rolled steel plant due to provincial production control requirements, with a target of reducing annual output by 5% and halting long-term delivery obligations signed in August [1] Institutional Insights - New Lake Futures notes that while downstream demand for stainless steel remains weak and inventory levels are high, there is strong market expectation for production cuts by stainless steel companies, leading to anticipated price volatility in the short term [2] - Ruida Futures highlights that the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel resource supply costs, but the rapid release of nickel pig iron capacity has led to a noticeable recovery in production and a decline in nickel pig iron prices, reducing raw material cost support [3] - The production profits for steel mills have improved significantly due to rising steel prices and weaker raw material cost increases, with expectations of increased production in August [3] - The end of the traditional consumption off-season is approaching, and optimistic expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season, along with favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, are likely to improve the supply-demand balance and market purchasing willingness [3] - Recent domestic stainless steel inventory reduction has alleviated market pressure, leading to an increase in spot prices [3] - Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish sentiment with a slight increase in positions and price rise, suggesting a light long position strategy [3]