月末资金面扰动因素增多 央行“组合拳”呵护流动性

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted from net withdrawal to net injection of liquidity in late July, increasing short-term liquidity support to stabilize market expectations and ensure overall stability in the financial system [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - From July 21 to July 24, the PBOC conducted net withdrawals of funds totaling 555 billion, 1,277 billion, 3,696 billion, and 1,195 billion yuan respectively. On July 25, the PBOC executed a reverse repo of 7,893 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 6,018 billion yuan after offsetting 1,875 billion yuan due [1]. - On July 25, the PBOC also conducted a 4,000 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, leading to a net injection of 1,000 billion yuan for July, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - According to Minsheng Bank's chief economist, the continuation of excess MLF operations is aimed at stabilizing market expectations and ensuring overall liquidity stability, especially with increasing month-end funding disturbances [1]. - Citic Securities' chief economist noted that despite July being a month with significant tax payments, the liquidity remained relatively loose at the beginning to mid-month, with stable funding rates and policy rate differentials [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation for August and September indicates a peak in government bond supply, with average net financing potentially reaching 1.5 to 1.6 trillion yuan, increasing the demand for stable funding from banks [3]. - The PBOC is likely to continue using various liquidity management tools, including OMO, MLF, and reverse repos, to release stability signals, and there is a possibility of conducting treasury purchases and reserve requirement ratio cuts to inject liquidity [3].