美欧贸易协议使德国汽车工业获“短暂喘息”，15%关税阵痛难解

Core Insights - The German automotive industry is facing significant challenges due to U.S. tariffs, with a call for immediate implementation of trade agreements to alleviate pressures [1][3][4] - Recent data indicates a slight recovery in the automotive business climate in Germany, although uncertainty remains high [1][5] - Major European automakers have revised their financial forecasts downward due to tariff impacts, with Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz notably adjusting their profit expectations [3][4][6] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on automobiles, alongside increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, creating unprecedented pressure on the automotive sector [3] - Volkswagen reported a profit reduction of approximately $1.5 billion in the first half of the year due to tariffs, leading to a downward revision of its sales growth forecast from 5% to flat [3] - Mercedes-Benz expects a significant drop in revenue for 2025, attributing a 50% decline in profits in the first half of the year to tariff impacts [3][6] Group 2: Economic Uncertainty - Economic uncertainty is expected to persist until the end of the year, as the details of the recently announced trade agreement between the EU and the U.S. are still awaited [1][4] - The Ifo Institute reported a slight improvement in the export expectations index for German automotive companies, but the overall sentiment remains cautious [5] - Even with a potential reduction in tariffs, the German automotive industry could face additional costs amounting to billions annually [4][5] Group 3: Production Challenges - The automotive industry is capital-intensive, and the uncertainty surrounding tariffs makes long-term investment decisions difficult for manufacturers [6][7] - Companies like Ford are experiencing significant losses due to tariffs, despite a high percentage of their vehicles being produced domestically [8] - The current production capacity in the U.S. is not optimized, and the establishment of new factories is unlikely due to the high costs associated with tariffs on imported components [8]