Huaan Securities(SH:600909) Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-08-08 07:06Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is experiencing significant pressure due to a "see-saw effect" with the equity market, leading to negative returns for bond funds and increased large redemptions [1][2][3] - As of July 25, the average return of pure bond funds in July is -0.11%, with less than 35% of products achieving positive returns, indicating widespread underperformance [2] - The recent large redemptions in bond funds are attributed to crowded trading in the bond market since June and a recovery in market risk appetite, but the fundamental factors affecting the bond market are unlikely to reverse [1][4] Group 2 - The equity market's recovery is identified as a primary driver of the bond market's pressure, with rising yields impacting the net value of fixed-income funds [3] - On July 24, 12 equity funds were launched with a total issuance scale exceeding 11 billion, contrasting with the struggles faced by bond funds [3] - Institutions maintain a positive outlook on the equity market, citing strong liquidity and optimistic sentiment, while the bond market is expected to find a new equilibrium amid adjustments [4][3] Group 3 - Concerns about a sustained redemption wave in bond funds are mitigated by the fact that recent redemptions are mainly precautionary measures from asset management institutions, without triggering a negative feedback loop [4] - The current bond market situation is characterized by high duration and leverage, making it sensitive to expectations of fundamental recovery and rising commodity prices [3][4] - Short-term opportunities in the bond market may be limited, with increased volatility expected as previous low-volatility conditions are disrupted [5]