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产能加速释放 下半年国际油价下行压力加大
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-08-08 07:27

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fourth increase this year, which has raised concerns about the downward pressure on international oil prices due to various factors including geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff policies [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have shown a downward trend in the first half of the year, with Brent crude oil futures dropping from $75.93 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $70.19 per barrel by July 9 [2]. - The price of light crude oil futures fell to a low of $59.58 per barrel in early May following the announcement of U.S. tariffs, indicating a significant impact on market sentiment [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Iran conflict, have caused fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $78.85 per barrel in mid-June before declining again [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is heavily influenced by OPEC+'s decision to increase production, with expectations of a potential complete cancellation of voluntary production cuts by September or October, which could exacerbate supply surplus [5][7]. - U.S. tariff policies remain a significant uncertainty, with recent announcements indicating increased tariffs on imports from several countries, which could dampen global oil demand [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the international oil price will be primarily driven by supply and demand fundamentals in the second half of the year, with expectations of a seasonal decline in demand post-summer [6][7]. Group 3: Price Forecasts - Analysts have differing views on the price range for Brent crude oil in the second half of the year, with estimates ranging from $60 to $85 per barrel, but a general bearish sentiment prevails [7][8]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could drop to around $59 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year, citing rising recession risks and increased OPEC+ supply as key factors [8][9]. - The consensus among experts suggests that $60 per barrel may serve as a support level for Brent crude, with limited potential for prices to rise significantly above this level in the near term [7][8].