商品期货来了场降温“及时雨” 多个品种深度回调

Group 1 - The domestic futures market is experiencing a significant cooling trend, with major commodities like glass and silicon iron hitting their daily limit down, and the photovoltaic industry chain undergoing deep adjustments [1][2][3] - On July 30, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, which has led to a decrease in investor expectations for a rate cut in September, impacting global commodity markets [2][3] - The Wenhua Commodity Index dropped nearly 1.5% on July 31, with many popular commodities experiencing declines of over 6%, including焦煤 (coking coal), glass, and pure soda [2][3] Group 2 - The photovoltaic industry chain, particularly polysilicon, has seen a significant withdrawal of long positions, with polysilicon contracts nearing limit down, closing down 7.81% at 49,130 yuan/ton on July 31 [4][6] - The supply side for焦煤 (coking coal) is stabilizing, with upstream coal mine inventories returning to reasonable levels, while demand remains strong despite production losses at coking enterprises [3][4] - The overall global photovoltaic industry chain is facing deep adjustments since 2025, with polysilicon production rates at historical lows of 30% to 40%, leading to improved supply dynamics [6]