人身险产品预定利率今年会下调吗？揭秘预定利率研究值调整逻辑

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the predetermined interest rate of life insurance products will officially begin in January 2025, with the initial research value set at 2.34%. This mechanism may trigger adjustments to the predetermined interest rates and product offerings if the maximum predetermined interest rate exceeds the research value by more than 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The regulatory authority has emphasized the importance of guiding the predetermined interest rates for life insurance products, with a notification issued in August 2024 to adjust the upper limit of these rates and establish a dynamic adjustment mechanism linked to market rates [2][3]. - The China Insurance Industry Association will regularly organize meetings to evaluate and publish the predetermined interest rate research values quarterly, enhancing the dynamic adjustment mechanism for life insurance products [2][3]. Group 2: Determination of Research Value - The predetermined interest rate research value is determined using a specific formula that incorporates the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), 5-year fixed deposit rates, and 10-year government bond yields, along with industry asset-liability management considerations [3][4]. - The basic return level is calculated using a formula that averages the 10-year government bond yield and tax premium over 250 and 750 days, reflecting the differences in yields between government bonds and policy financial bonds [3]. Group 3: Impact on Insurance Products - Changes in the predetermined interest rate research value will significantly affect the pricing and availability of life insurance products, potentially leading to the withdrawal of certain products if the rates are adjusted downward [5][6]. - The anticipated decline in the predetermined interest rate could result in increased prices for life and health insurance products, with a potential "preemptive halt" in sales to manage demand before the adjustment [6].