Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-08 09:31Core Viewpoint - The carbon black industry in China is experiencing structural overcapacity, with low operating rates and production growth, leading to increased operational pressures on companies due to fluctuating raw material prices and environmental regulations [1][8][19]. Industry Overview - Carbon black is a nano-sized carbon material primarily used in tire manufacturing, rubber products, and other applications, with the domestic market mainly focused on rubber-grade carbon black [2][3]. - The upstream materials for carbon black production include coal tar and ethylene tar, which account for 60-80% of total costs, while the downstream applications are dominated by the tire industry, which consumes 70-75% of carbon black [3][7]. Industry Operation - China's carbon black production capacity exceeds 9 million tons, with a utilization rate of around 60%, and production is expected to grow slightly in 2024 [8][19]. - The export of carbon black has increased due to the expansion of Chinese tire manufacturers in Southeast Asia, although the export growth rate is expected to slow due to international trade barriers [9][19]. Raw Material Prices - The price of coal tar, a key raw material, has shown significant volatility, impacting the cost structure of carbon black companies. In 2024, the average price of high-temperature coal tar is projected to be around 4,167 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 10% from 2023 [10][19]. Downstream Demand - The tire market's growth directly influences carbon black demand, with a projected 9.2% increase in tire production in 2024. However, rising costs and stricter environmental regulations have led to a decrease in carbon black usage in tires [14][19]. Price Trends - Carbon black prices have been on a downward trend since 2023, influenced by raw material price fluctuations and weak downstream demand. The market is expected to experience price volatility in 2024 [16][19]. Key Industry Players - In 2024, the total carbon black production in China is expected to reach 6.67 million tons, with leading companies like Jiangxi Black Cat and Jineng Technology holding significant market shares. The top five companies account for 46% of total production [19][21]. Industry Policies and Focus - National policies are aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity and increasing industry concentration, with a focus on encouraging advanced production techniques and improving resource utilization [21][22]. - The implementation of stricter environmental regulations is increasing the costs for carbon black companies, necessitating investments in cleaner production technologies [22][23]. Future Industry Outlook - The carbon black market is expected to maintain moderate growth, driven by demand from the tire and automotive sectors, as well as the expansion of high-end carbon black applications [26]. - Key trends include structural adjustments towards high-end products, accelerated industry consolidation, increased focus on technological innovation, and a shift towards green and low-carbon production methods [26].