美国50%关税对印度影响几何？穆迪：制造业雄心受挫、经济增长放缓

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by President Trump has severely impacted India, the world's fifth-largest economy, with a new 50% tariff on Indian goods due to its continued purchase of Russian oil [1][2] - Moody's has indicated that the high tariffs could significantly harm India's manufacturing ambitions and slow down economic growth, projecting a potential reduction of approximately 0.3 percentage points in India's GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [2] - The substantial tariff disparity compared to other Asia-Pacific countries may undermine India's efforts to develop its manufacturing sector, particularly in high-value industries like electronics, and could reverse recent gains in attracting related investments [2] Group 2 - Moody's also noted that if India reduces its oil imports from Russia to avoid punitive tariffs, it may struggle to secure sufficient alternative oil supplies, which could hinder economic growth and exacerbate inflation due to rising global oil prices [2] - The increased import bills resulting from tariffs are expected to widen India's current account deficit, especially as weakened tariff competitiveness may deter foreign investment [2] - Despite these challenges, Moody's anticipates that India may negotiate a compromise solution, as the Reserve Bank of India has maintained a neutral policy stance amid ongoing trade uncertainties [3]