Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the "anti-involution" movement will not significantly hinder the factory automation (FA) market in China, but automation demand will enter a period of mild decline from 2025 to 2027 [1][2]. Industry Overview - The industrial automation sector is expected to experience a mild downward cycle, with market growth rates projected at -1% in 2025, -3% in 2026, and -2% in 2027, which is a downward adjustment from previous growth expectations [2][3]. - Capital expenditure (Capex) is expected to expand only in a few sectors such as consumer electronics (foldable smartphones), batteries (solid-state technology), and AIDC, while most manufacturing sectors will struggle with insufficient capacity utilization and output to support increased capital spending [3][6]. Company Drivers - In a slowing industry growth environment, individual company drivers become crucial. Goldman Sachs evaluates companies based on six dimensions: favorable end-market positioning, domestic market share growth, product premiumization, overseas expansion, future industry positioning, and valuation attractiveness [6][7]. - The share of overseas revenue for covered companies is expected to rise from 23% in 2024 to 25% by 2027 [11]. Potential Growth Areas - Opportunities exist in high-end products (such as high-margin software, sensors, and after-sales services) and future industries (like AI and robotics), although high technical barriers may slow commercialization [13]. - Companies are advised to focus on strategic planning comments during earnings seasons rather than just the second-quarter performance [13]. Investment Strategy - A "defensive + AI" barbell strategy is recommended to cope with the soft FA market, favoring selective defensive stocks [13]. - Specific stocks highlighted include: - Nari Tech (600406.SH): Expected revenue growth of 12% in 2025, benefiting from state grid budget increases [13]. - AVIC Jonhon (002179.SZ): Anticipated long-term net profit margin growth from 16.2% in 2024 to 18.8% by 2030 [14]. - Sanhua (H) (2050.HK): Projected revenue contribution from humanoid robot actuators to reach 25% by 2030 [15]. Cautious Outlook on FA Sector - Estun has been downgraded to sell due to reliance on weak demand sectors, with a projected 30%-42% EPS reduction from 2025 to 2030 [16]. - Raycus has also been downgraded to sell, facing challenges in its core fiber laser business with expected product price declines [16]. Stock Recommendations - A list of stocks with "buy" ratings includes: - Nari Tech (600406.SS): Target price of 31.8 CNY, with a 45% upside potential [17]. - Haitian (1882 HK): Target price of 27.2 HKD, with a 32% upside potential [17]. - Kstar (002518.SZ): Target price of 30.9 CNY, with a 30% upside potential [17].
高盛：下半年工业科技展望 推荐“防御 + AI”杠铃策略(附股票清单)
智通财经网·2025-08-08 13:03