长期国债收益率总体会运行在合理区间内

Core Viewpoint - Long-term government bond yields in China have been declining, with the 30-year yield falling below 2.5%, reflecting expectations of long-term economic growth and inflation, while also being influenced by supply and demand factors [1][2]. Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a positive long-term outlook on economic growth, asserting that the fundamental economic conditions remain favorable [1]. - Some institutional investors anticipate a moderate recovery in inflation from low levels, which could support an increase in long-term bond yields as nominal rates adjust to inflation [1]. - The bond market in China has made significant progress, ranking second globally in total size, but still requires improvements in market depth and pricing mechanisms [1]. Group 2 - A noticeable reduction in government bond supply this year may have contributed to the short-term divergence between bond yields and economic expectations [2]. - The PBOC's strong counter-cyclical monetary policy has created a favorable liquidity environment for the stable operation of the bond market [2]. - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" situation, leading to a potential rebound in long-term bond yields [2]. Group 3 - The PBOC's engagement in secondary market bond trading serves as a liquidity management tool and a reserve for monetary policy [3]. - China's bond market ranks third globally, with improved liquidity facilitating the PBOC's operations in the secondary market [3]. - Unlike developed economies that resorted to large-scale bond purchases for monetary policy goals, China continues to implement normal monetary policy, distinguishing its approach from quantitative easing (QE) practices [3].