规模破万亿元！银行发行“二永债”须警惕这项风险→

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of "perpetual bonds" (also known as secondary capital bonds) by banks has accelerated significantly this year, driven by the increasing demand for capital replenishment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Issuance Trends - As of August 7, 2023, banks have issued over 1 trillion yuan in "perpetual bonds," with a notable surge of over 200 billion yuan in July alone [1][2]. - A total of 47 banks have issued 69 "perpetual bonds" this year, amounting to 10,464.60 billion yuan, surpassing the 1 trillion yuan mark [2]. - The issuance pace has notably increased since the second quarter of 2023, with 15 bonds issued in July, totaling 229.4 billion yuan, which exceeds the total issuance in the first quarter [2]. Group 2: Demand for Capital - The acceleration in "perpetual bond" issuance is fundamentally linked to banks' growing need for capital replenishment, particularly among smaller banks that find these bonds convenient [3][4]. - National banks have shown better performance in capital adequacy and risk management, benefiting from special government bond injections, which alleviates their capital replenishment needs [4][5]. - Smaller banks are more enthusiastic about issuing "perpetual bonds" due to their non-reliance on capital market valuations and the relatively controllable financing costs in the current low-interest environment [4][5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Context - The Basel III framework mandates that commercial banks maintain a total capital adequacy ratio of at least 8%, with domestic regulations being even stricter [3]. - The ongoing tightening of city investment bonds has increased demand from institutional investors for "perpetual bonds," providing a favorable market environment for smaller banks [5][6]. - As of the first quarter of 2023, the overall capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was 15.28%, with state-owned banks having the highest ratios [5]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - There is a notable disparity in issuance scale among different types of banks, with state-owned and joint-stock banks issuing larger amounts compared to local and private banks [4][5]. - The regulatory framework stipulates that the proportion of secondary capital bonds that can be counted towards capital decreases over time, which could weaken the capital replenishment effect if not managed properly [5]. - Smaller banks face challenges in maintaining adequate capital replenishment capabilities, necessitating the establishment of a long-term capital replenishment mechanism [5].