中银国际：金管局“接钱”料对港股影响较小 恒指年底目标27,500

Group 1 - The liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market remains abundant, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 2,433 billion as of August 6, significantly higher than HKD 1,085 billion in the same period last year and the forecasted HKD 1,318 billion for the entire year of 2024 [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have increased by 24.18% and 23.81% respectively [1] - Despite a recent decline in liquidity, the impact on Hong Kong stocks is expected to be limited, as the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has significantly decreased since June, widening the interest rate gap between HKD and USD [1] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume for July 2025 reached HKD 2,629 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 167% [2] - The average daily trading volume for August so far is HKD 2,335 billion, remaining at historically high levels [2] - The net inflow from southbound trading this year has reached RMB 833.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 109.8% [2] Group 3 - Strong demand from mainland investors for Hong Kong-listed stocks is expected to continue in the second half of the year, driven by high-quality technology and advanced manufacturing stocks, attractive valuations, and high dividends [2] - The forecast for net inflows from mainland to Hong Kong southbound trading is projected to reach RMB 1.2 trillion in 2025, up from RMB 744 billion in 2024 and RMB 289.4 billion in 2023 [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor active stocks in southbound trading, including Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, SMIC, and Tencent Holdings [2]