金融总量增长既“稳”又“实”

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, leading to significant growth in broad money (M2) and social financing scale, indicating a stable and real financial growth environment [1][2]. Monetary Policy and Financial Growth - As of April 2025, M2 balance reached 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, which is 1 percentage point higher than the previous month [1]. - From January to April, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1]. - The balance of RMB loans reached 265.70 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1]. - The central bank's actions, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, have maintained ample liquidity and supported commercial banks in meeting the financing needs of the real economy [1]. Government Bond Issuance - The acceleration of government bond issuance has been a major driver of the rapid growth in social financing scale, with net financing exceeding 5 trillion yuan from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 3.6 trillion yuan [2]. - In April, the issuance of special government bonds and local government special refinancing bonds contributed approximately 970 billion yuan to net financing, increasing the social financing growth rate by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - The fiscal budget deficit rate has been raised to 4%, with plans to issue nearly 12 trillion yuan in new government bonds, marking a historical high [2]. Credit Growth and Structure - Despite market expectations, credit growth remained high in April, with RMB loan growth maintaining above 8% after adjusting for local debt replacement effects [4]. - The structure of credit has improved, with inclusive small and micro loans reaching 34.31 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing at 14.71 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% [6]. - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises has increased from 31% to 38%, while loans to large and medium-sized enterprises have decreased from 69% to 62% [6]. Sectoral Focus and Future Outlook - Financial institutions are increasingly directing credit resources towards manufacturing and technology innovation, with the share of manufacturing loans in total medium to long-term loans rising from 5.1% to 9.3% [7]. - The market anticipates stable financial growth in the near term, supported by effective macroeconomic policies and a focus on enhancing consumer demand [5]. - The development of consumer finance is crucial for expanding effective consumption demand, although there are concerns about high leverage among households [8].