部分地区降雨仍将影响刚需 沥青短期仍偏弱

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in asphalt futures prices indicates a bearish sentiment in the market, with expectations of continued volatility in the near term [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 8, asphalt futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 3467.00 yuan, closing at 3478.00 yuan, down 1.58% [1] - Various institutions predict that asphalt prices will experience fluctuations, with some expecting a primarily sideways movement [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of asphalt is expected to see limited growth, while demand remains strong during the peak season, although actual performance is still under observation [2] - The domestic asphalt market is currently in a subdued state, particularly in southern and central-western regions affected by the rainy season, while northern regions are beginning to see increased end-user demand [3] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Guantong Futures anticipates that asphalt will experience oscillations in the near term due to weak cost support from crude oil prices and upcoming government policies aimed at stabilizing key industries [2] - Jianxin Futures suggests that the asphalt market will primarily see single-sided price fluctuations, with potential opportunities for arbitrage as oil price increases slow down [2] - Xinhuh Futures notes that the short-term price outlook for asphalt remains weak, with attention needed on actual demand conditions as supply begins to recover [3]