Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-08-08 22:59Core Viewpoint - The prices of minor metals such as cobalt, tungsten, antimony, and rare earths have been rising significantly this year, driven by supply changes and increasing demand, leading to strong performance in related A-share stocks [1][2][9]. Price Trends - As of August 8, 2023, the average prices for various minor metals have increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year: - Electrolytic cobalt: 265,000 CNY/ton (+55.43%) - Tungsten oxide: 317,500 CNY/ton (+32.02%) - Antimony ingot: 186,500 CNY/ton (+33.21%) - Molybdenum bar: 490 CNY/kg (+4.48%) - Bismuth: 118,500 CNY/ton (+61.22%) - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide: 521,500 CNY/ton (+31.03%) - Dysprosium oxide: 1,615,000 CNY/ton (+0.13%) - Terbium oxide: 7,020,000 CNY/ton (+25.13%) [2]. Company Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown significant growth, with revenue and net profit for the sector increasing by 8.0% and 65.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, respectively. Nearly 70% of listed companies in this sector have positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Notable companies include: - Northern Rare Earth: Expected net profit growth of over 2000% year-on-year - Shenghe Resources: Expected net profit growth of over 600% year-on-year [3]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 32% this year, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 8.45% increase [4]. - Key stocks include Shenghe Resources and Guangsheng Nonferrous, both up over 120%, and several others showing significant gains [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Changes in supply dynamics have been noted, particularly with cobalt, where the Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its export ban, leading to a significant decrease in imports of cobalt intermediate products in China [5][6]. - The global rare earth reserves are dominated by China, which holds 44 million tons, accounting for 40% of the total [6]. Future Demand Projections - The demand for rare earth materials, particularly neodymium-iron-boron magnets, is expected to grow significantly due to the rise of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies. By 2026, the demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron materials is projected to reach 21.1 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14% [8][10]. - The commercialization of humanoid robots is anticipated to further increase demand for neodymium, with projections suggesting a growth rate of 75% from 2024 to 2035 [8]. Price Outlook - Analysts expect the upward price trend for minor metals to continue, driven by persistent demand expansion and supply disruptions. The price of antimony and cobalt is projected to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles [9][10].