WTO：“对等关税”预计将在今年下半年及2026年令美国进口承压

Core Viewpoint - The WTO has revised its global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, an improvement from the previous prediction of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff increase estimate of 2.7% [1] Group 1: Trade Growth Factors - The increase in the 2025 trade forecast is primarily attributed to a surge in U.S. imports, driven by anticipatory purchasing ahead of tariff hikes [1][5] - The global macroeconomic outlook has improved, benefiting from a weaker dollar and lower oil prices, which support manufacturing growth [7] - However, the recent tariff adjustments are expected to exert a negative impact on global trade, particularly in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 [7] Group 2: Regional Contributions - Asian economies are projected to remain the largest positive contributors to global goods trade growth in 2025, although their contribution for 2026 is expected to be lower than previously estimated [4] - North America is anticipated to have a negative impact on global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, although the negative effect for this year is less severe than earlier estimates due to higher-than-expected U.S. import levels [4] - Europe is shifting from a moderate positive contribution to a slightly negative one for trade in 2025, with exports and imports showing weaker growth than previously forecasted [4] Group 3: Tariff Impact - The WTO's previous forecast of a 0.2% contraction in trade for 2025 was based on earlier tariff measures, including the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [5] - The implementation of higher tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to a downward revision of trade growth expectations, with the latest tariffs expected to increasingly pressure trade volumes [5][6] - The positive effects of anticipatory purchasing and inventory accumulation are expected to diminish over time, leading to a decline in import demand in the latter half of 2025 [6]