收益率预警VS风险资产狂欢！美债、美股衰退预期分歧加大

Group 1 - The recent poor US non-farm payroll data has led fixed-income investors to anticipate a sharp economic slowdown, yet the stock and credit markets show little evidence of this, with high-risk trades surging again [1] - The Nasdaq 100 index recorded its largest weekly gain in over a month, while high-yield bond spreads narrowed for five consecutive days, indicating a strong risk appetite despite economic concerns [1] - According to JPMorgan, the probability of recession reflected in the stock and corporate credit markets is in the single digits, significantly lower than the implied probability in the US Treasury market [1] Group 2 - The US July employment report caused market volatility, leading to the largest single-day drop in two-year Treasury yields since 2023, while the S&P 500 index fell by 1.6% on the same day [3] - Despite the initial market reaction, the stock market rebounded, with the Nasdaq 100 index rising by 1.7% and the S&P 500 index showing gains on three out of five trading days that week [3] - Economic data indicating a weakening services sector and rising inflation expectations have contributed to a decline in long-term bond yields over the past month [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that economic recessions occur approximately every five years, and as the current economic expansion matures, the chances of optimism are decreasing [6] - Economic indicators are becoming increasingly difficult to interpret due to the fluctuating policy environment, which adds volatility to major asset classes [6] - Economists estimate the probability of a US recession at 35%, down from 65% earlier in 2023, with the second-quarter earnings season boosting market sentiment [6] Group 4 - CreditSights' global strategy head noted that risk assets are supported by strong technical factors, expectations that the Federal Reserve will not fall behind the curve, and better-than-expected corporate earnings [7] - Despite fundamental uncertainties, particularly in the credit market, strong capital inflows have maintained the resilience of spreads [7] - Historical instances of market divergence have often ended with the stock market prevailing, even when the Treasury market raised recession concerns [7]