高关税拖累全球 世贸组织下调明年货物贸易增长预期

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has downgraded the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8% due to recent tariff adjustments impacting global trade prospects [1] Summary by Sections Trade Growth Forecast - The WTO predicts a 0.9% growth in global goods trade for 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of -0.2%, but still below the earlier estimate of 2.7% based on lower tariff levels [1] - The adjustment in the forecast is primarily attributed to U.S. importers stockpiling goods ahead of tariff increases, resulting in an 11% year-on-year increase in U.S. imports in the first half of this year [1] Regional Insights - Asian economies are expected to remain the largest engine for global goods trade growth in 2025 [1] - North America is projected to continue dragging down global trade growth over the next two years, while Europe is anticipated to have a slight negative impact on global trade growth this year [1] Tariff Impact - The WTO Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, highlighted that the comprehensive effects of recent tariff measures are becoming evident, with tariff uncertainty being one of the most destructive forces in the global trade environment, affecting business confidence, investment, and supply chains [1]