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申万宏源:A股牛市氛围不会轻易消失 科技、制造业反内卷或成牛市主线结构
智通财经网·2025-08-10 01:26

Core Viewpoint - The bullish sentiment in the A-share market is expected to persist, supported by stable conditions, despite short-term market divergences and uncertainties [1][4]. Market Sentiment and Structure - Investors generally expect a bull market, but there is significant disagreement regarding short-term market movements. The consensus is that the bull market is gradually starting, but confidence in demand remains low, which may hinder upward index breakthroughs [2][4]. - The main structural narrative of the bull market has not yet been established, with current high-performing sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing likely not being the core drivers of the bull market [2][3]. Sector Analysis - Short-term strong sectors include pharmaceuticals and overseas computing, which reflect high expectations for the bull market. However, their relative value has decreased, suggesting that these sectors may move in tandem with the broader market in the future [5][6]. - New consumption is identified as a relatively high-value sector that may see rotation and catch-up in the near term [5][6]. - The mid-term structural focus is expected to shift towards domestic technology and manufacturing sectors, particularly those addressing "anti-involution" trends, which may become the main narrative of the bull market [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is anticipated to experience fluctuations before early September, with potential internal adjustment pressures afterward. However, the overall bullish atmosphere is expected to remain intact [5][6]. - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a leading market in the bull cycle, with pricing more aligned with fundamental expectations, making it a relatively attractive option in the short to medium term [1][6]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is projected to improve by 2026, with potential fiscal stimulus from major economies possibly exceeding market expectations. This could enhance China's economic influence on non-U.S. countries [4][5]. - Despite potential market adjustments, opportunities are expected to arise, particularly in sectors with high micro-level activity and small-cap growth stocks [4][5].