刚刚！美联储，降息大消息

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman indicate strong support for three interest rate cuts within the year, with a call for a rate cut to begin in September, driven by weak labor market data and concerns over economic activity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts in 2025, emphasizing the need to address the weakening labor market [2]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is currently estimated at 88.9% by investors, with speculation shifting towards a potential 50 basis point cut [1]. - Recent comments from various Federal Reserve officials have leaned towards a dovish stance, advocating for immediate rate cuts due to signs of labor market deterioration [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including July CPI, PPI, and retail sales, are expected to provide critical insights for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [4][5]. - Analysts are particularly focused on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with expectations of a moderate increase in core commodity prices due to tariff pass-through effects [5]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may signal shifts in monetary policy focus from inflation to employment [6][7]. - Discrepancies within the Federal Reserve regarding economic assessments are evident, with a divide between those prioritizing inflation concerns and those focusing on economic slowdown risks [7].