Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of this stance [1][3] - Bowman emphasizes the need to avoid further unnecessary deterioration in the labor market and reduce the likelihood of larger policy corrections in the future [3] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicates that the timing for rate cuts is approaching due to evidence of a weakening job market and the absence of persistent tariff-induced inflation [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut if unemployment rises further [3][4] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Bowman and another governor voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - Recent labor market data shows a significant underperformance, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, well below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000, and revisions to previous months indicating a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] Group 3 - Inflation data reveals that the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation [5] - The core PCE price index for June also increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including July CPI, PPI, and retail sales, are anticipated to provide important insights for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [5][6]
降息3次?美联储,大消息
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-08-10 10:03