特朗普关税或使黄金贸易“三角模式”生变？瑞士如何接招

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland, lacking gold mines, is a major player in gold refining and exports significant amounts of gold to the U.S., which may be impacted by U.S. tariffs and trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Trade Dynamics - Switzerland is the world's largest gold trading nation, handling about 20% of global gold trade, with major refining companies located there [3]. - The typical "triangle model" of global gold trade involves transporting large gold bars between London and New York, with Switzerland serving as a refining hub [3]. - Recent trends show a reversal in gold export flows from Switzerland to the U.S., with exports nearly dropping to zero in recent months [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Political Reactions - Gold was Switzerland's largest single export commodity last year, accounting for 27% of total exports, surpassing the pharmaceutical industry [7]. - The Swiss government faces pressure from various political factions to hold the gold industry accountable for trade imbalances and potential losses due to U.S. tariffs [9][10]. - Calls for the gold industry to contribute to compensating for the impacts of tariffs are growing, with suggestions for appropriate taxation or returning gold to its countries of origin [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The gold refining business in Switzerland is characterized by low profit margins and intense price competition, raising concerns about its sustainability [3][5]. - The industry is experiencing significant uncertainty due to changing U.S. tariff rules and domestic political backlash [5][6]. - There are discussions about increasing investments in U.S. refining capabilities as a potential trade-off in negotiations with the U.S. [6].