程实：非农系统性下修再现，美联储降息预期飙升

Core Viewpoint - The continuous downward revision of U.S. non-farm payroll data since 2025 indicates a significant weakening of the labor market, suggesting that the actual economic conditions are much worse than initially reported [1][2][3]. Labor Market Trends - The U.S. non-farm payroll data has been revised down by a total of 461,000 jobs over the past six months, reflecting a consistent trend of labor market cooling since Q2 2025 [2]. - Historical data shows that significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls often precede key turning points in the economy, as seen during the 2001 dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [2][3]. - The current downward trend in non-farm payrolls may indicate a structural weakening of the U.S. economy, which has been temporarily masked by initial estimates and lagging indicators [2][3]. Employment Indicators - Job openings (JOLTS) have decreased from a peak of 12.134 million in March 2022 to 7.437 million by June 2025, a nearly 40% drop, indicating reduced hiring intentions and job creation capabilities [7]. - The unemployment rate has gradually increased from 3.5% in the second half of 2023 to 4.2% by July 2025, suggesting a systemic lack of labor demand [10]. - The labor force participation rate has also shown a structural decline, dropping from 62.8% in mid-2023 to 62.2% by July 2025 [10]. Market Expectations and Policy Implications - The market's expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have rapidly shifted, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 38% to 90% within a few days [13]. - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy is shifting from combating inflation to stabilizing employment, as the labor market is not as strong as it appears [14][15]. - The combination of weakening labor demand, declining job quality, and manageable inflation suggests that the Federal Reserve may find it reasonable to open the door for interest rate cuts [15].