管涛丨“8·11”汇改十周年：市场化始终是最亮底色

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's currency exchange rate system, emphasizing the importance of marketization in the reform process and the challenges that remain in achieving a fully market-driven exchange rate [1][2][14]. Group 1: Historical Context of Exchange Rate Reform - The "8·11" exchange rate reform initiated a shift towards a more market-oriented exchange rate mechanism, building on previous reforms since 1994 [2][3]. - Prior to the 1994 reform, China had a dual exchange rate system, which transitioned to a managed floating exchange rate system [2][3]. - The initial phase of the "8·11" reform faced significant capital outflows and a decline in foreign reserves, leading to a depreciation of the RMB [1][4]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Mechanism and Market Dynamics - The exchange rate mechanism has evolved to include a counter-cyclical adjustment factor to better reflect economic fundamentals and prevent market herd behavior [1][4]. - By 2019, the RMB broke the 7 mark against the USD, indicating a further increase in the marketization of the exchange rate [1][4]. - The overall foreign exchange reserves increased significantly from 1994 to 2025, indicating a net increase driven by market activities [4]. Group 3: Current Exchange Rate Challenges - The concept of equilibrium exchange rate is complex, with the market often deviating from economic fundamentals, leading to potential overvaluation or undervaluation of the RMB [5][10]. - Recent trends show that despite a growing trade surplus, the RMB's real effective exchange rate (REER) has depreciated, suggesting a potential misalignment with economic fundamentals [7][8]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified the RMB as one of the currencies that is stronger than its fundamental equilibrium level, indicating ongoing discussions about its valuation [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Considerations - The article highlights the need for continued efforts to overcome "floating fear" and achieve a fully market-driven exchange rate system [14]. - The flexibility of the RMB exchange rate policy has been enhanced, allowing it to absorb external shocks and providing more autonomy for monetary policy [12][13]. - However, the central bank has emphasized the importance of maintaining stability in the exchange rate to prevent excessive fluctuations driven by market sentiment [13][14].