中银国际：当前地产行业量价压力仍存 把握后增量时代机遇

Core Viewpoint - The future development pattern of the real estate industry will focus on two directions: optimizing incremental quality and optimizing existing stock [1] Group 1: Incremental Quality and Land Supply - Land supply will decrease in quantity but increase in quality, with a focus on core urban areas and effective land use [2] - In the first half of 2025, the national residential land transaction area decreased by 4% year-on-year, while the floor price increased by 25% year-on-year, with a premium rate of 10.5%, up 6.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Major cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou have seen average premium rates for residential land exceed 30% [2] Group 2: Quality Improvement in Development - The concept of "good housing" has been integrated into national standards, marking a shift towards quality upgrades in housing construction [3] - In June 2025, the sales absorption rate for new housing products in Guangzhou was 39%, significantly higher than the 9% for older products [3] - Major developers are establishing their own "good housing" systems to meet the rising demand for quality housing [3] Group 3: Urban Renewal as a Key Task - Urban renewal projects have averaged over 60,000 annually in the past three years, with significant investment in old community renovations [4] - Total investment in urban renewal from 2021 to 2024 reached 16.6 trillion yuan, with annual investments exceeding 2 trillion yuan in 2023 and 2024 [4] - Various types of asset renewal, including old neighborhoods and traditional shopping centers, are being prioritized [4][5] Group 4: Shift to Real Estate and Operational Services - Real estate companies are transitioning from high-turnover developers to integrated real estate and operational service providers [6] - The three promising sectors identified are commercial real estate, property management, and senior housing, all of which have strong consumer attributes and sustainability [6] - The commercial real estate sector is evolving with new consumption trends, including pop-up stores and unique IP collaborations [7] Group 5: Property Management and Senior Housing - Property management is evolving to leverage existing advantages and enhance service precision through technology [8] - The senior housing sector is shifting from a simple sales model to a comprehensive consumption model that integrates various services for the elderly [8]