纯碱反内卷另类样本：低成本天然碱持续扩张 高成本产能或有序退出

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash industry is facing significant challenges due to overcapacity and declining demand from downstream industries, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector, which has led to a collective production cut of 30% in July [1][2]. Industry Overview - The soda ash industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with total domestic soda ash production capacity at 40.78 million tons and demand at over 30 million tons, indicating a surplus [2]. - As of July 31, 2023, the total inventory of domestic soda ash companies reached 1.684 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 79% [2]. Market Dynamics - The recent "anti-involution" policy has led to increased volatility in soda ash prices, with a temporary price spike of 200 CNY/ton, but prices have since fallen back below 1200 CNY/ton [2][3]. - The demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further due to the ongoing capacity reductions in the photovoltaic glass sector [2]. Company Actions - Companies like Zhongyan Chemical and Shandong Haihua are investing in natural soda ash production to lower costs and improve competitiveness [1][4]. - Zhongyan Chemical has acquired a natural soda ash mine, while Shandong Haihua is collaborating with Zhongyan to develop natural soda ash resources [5]. Production Costs - The cost of producing soda ash varies significantly by method, with natural soda ash costing between 800-1000 CNY/ton, while ammonia soda costs range from 1100-1450 CNY/ton [4]. - High-cost ammonia and union soda producers are currently operating at a loss, while natural soda producers remain profitable [4]. Future Outlook - The soda ash industry is expected to see a capacity exit of 1.1 million tons and an expansion of 600,000 tons in 2024, with a focus on natural soda ash production [6]. - The proportion of natural soda ash capacity is projected to increase from 16% to 30% in the coming years [6]. Policy Implications - The government is assessing outdated production facilities, which may lead to the phased exit of high-cost production methods [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to promote high-quality development within the industry, encouraging companies to enhance their operational efficiency [8].