“8·11汇改”十年：人民币汇率市场化改革成效显著

Core Insights - The "8·11 Exchange Rate Reform" was a significant step towards enhancing the market-oriented nature of the RMB to USD exchange rate, reflecting the central bank's commitment to allowing market forces to play a larger role [1][3] - Over the past decade, the central bank has steadily deepened the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism, leading to increased flexibility and stability of the RMB exchange rate [1][4] Summary by Sections Background of the Reform - Prior to the "8·11 Reform," the international economic landscape was complex, with the US economy recovering and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, leading to a stronger USD and weaker currencies in other regions [2] - From July 2014 to July 2015, the nominal and real effective exchange rates of the RMB appreciated by 11.6% and 11.3%, respectively, indicating a significant deviation from market expectations [2] Mechanism of the Reform - The reform aimed to enhance the market-oriented nature and benchmark status of the RMB to USD exchange rate by adjusting the middle price quotation mechanism [3] - The central bank emphasized the importance of market supply and demand in determining the exchange rate, allowing for appropriate adjustments to return to a reasonable equilibrium level [3] Market Developments Post-Reform - Since the reform, the RMB exchange rate has exhibited increased elasticity, with both appreciation and depreciation becoming common, thus better serving as a stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [4][5] - In the first quarter of 2025, the RMB to USD exchange rate middle price fluctuated between 7.1688 and 7.1891, with a near-even split of appreciation and depreciation days [5] Future Directions for Reform - The central bank plans to continue enhancing the elasticity of the RMB exchange rate, allowing for timely adjustments to reflect market demands and economic fundamentals [6] - The reform has also facilitated the RMB's inclusion in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, promoting its internationalization [7] Internationalization of the RMB - The central bank's recent meetings have prioritized the steady and cautious advancement of RMB internationalization, focusing on expanding its use in trade settlements and enhancing its financing capabilities [7][8] - Future efforts will include deepening trade settlement scenarios, strengthening financing functions, and improving the offshore market system to enhance the RMB's attractiveness as an investment currency [8]