核心CPI温和回升 7月物价运行边际改善

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, reflecting effective demand expansion and improved market supply-demand dynamics [3][6] - Food prices saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, primarily due to a high base from the previous year, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 7.6% [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July, with the decline remaining consistent with June, although some industries showed signs of price recovery [4][5] - The month-on-month PPI fell by 0.2%, but this marked the first narrowing of the decline since March, indicating improved market competition and price stabilization in certain sectors [5][6] - Industries such as coal mining, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic manufacturing experienced reduced price declines compared to June, contributing to a less negative PPI [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that proactive macroeconomic policies will continue to support demand recovery, leading to a stabilization of domestic prices [6] - New policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as support for childbirth and early education, are expected to further stimulate domestic demand and contribute to a gradual recovery in CPI [6] - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are projected to elevate industrial product prices in August compared to July, with a significant reduction in year-on-year price bases expected to aid in this recovery [6]