博弈可转债市场 公募策略嬗变

Core Insights - The convertible bond market has become a significant source of excess returns for "fixed income +" fund managers in 2023, with several convertible bond-themed funds reporting returns exceeding 15% year-to-date as of August 8 [1][2] - There is a noticeable divergence in fund managers' strategies regarding convertible bonds, with some reducing their positions while others are increasing them, reflecting a re-evaluation of valuation systems and investment strategies [1][3] Group 1: Performance of Convertible Bonds - Multiple convertible bond-themed funds have performed well in 2023, with specific funds like Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A and Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced A achieving returns over 20% [2] - The average price of convertible bonds is currently high, leading to challenges for fund managers in deciding whether to chase high prices or take profits [2][3] Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Many fund managers have explicitly stated in their reports that they are reducing their convertible bond positions, with examples including Hai Fu Tong and Hua An Convertible Bond, which saw significant decreases in their convertible bond allocations [3][4] - Conversely, some funds like Fu Guo Convertible Bond and Dongfang Hong Ju Li have increased their convertible bond holdings, indicating a split in strategy among fund managers [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The convertible bond market is experiencing structural changes due to a decrease in bank convertible bond supply, prompting funds to seek alternative assets to fill the gap in their portfolios [4][5] - The overall allocation to convertible bonds in fixed income portfolios has decreased, with a shift towards sectors like non-bank financials and healthcare [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Fund managers express concerns about the high average prices of convertible bonds, suggesting that the probability of achieving positive returns in the next six months is lower when prices are at current levels [3][4] - Despite the high valuations, some fund managers remain optimistic about the convertible bond market, citing the potential for continued demand driven by favorable equity market conditions [7][8]