美国对俄罗斯制裁威胁难奏效

Core Viewpoint - The potential new sanctions from the U.S. against Russia are unlikely to have a substantial impact on the Russian economy or its high-level decision-making, as experts believe that previous sanctions have already diminished their effectiveness [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and Their Impact - Experts argue that even if the U.S. imposes a 100% tariff on Russian goods, it would not significantly harm the Russian economy due to the low volume of Russian exports to the U.S., which amounted to $3.5 billion in 2024, a nearly 90% decrease from 2021 [2]. - The primary Russian exports to the U.S. are fertilizers, and imposing tariffs on these products may not be well-received by American farmers, as it would increase agricultural production costs and reduce competitiveness [2]. - The U.S. has threatened secondary tariffs on trade partners of Russia, particularly targeting oil exports, which could impact countries like India and Brazil [2][4]. Group 2: International Energy Market Concerns - The 18th round of EU sanctions has further restricted Russian oil exports, raising concerns about international energy supply volatility, with a daily supply gap of nearly 10 million barrels that cannot be easily resolved [3]. - Experts warn that excluding Russian oil from the international market could lead to energy shortages and necessitate long-term investments in development, production, and transportation [3]. Group 3: Russia's Economic Resilience - Russian officials assert that the economy continues to function under sanctions and has developed a certain level of "immunity" to external pressures, indicating that secondary tariffs would not have a significant effect [3][4]. - The Russian government emphasizes the legitimacy of its trade partnerships and the right of sovereign nations to choose their economic alliances, suggesting that external pressures will not alter Russia's commitment to its national interests [3][4].