Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market is experiencing a decline in prices due to high supply and weak demand, with potential for recovery as schools reopen and food factories prepare for the Mid-Autumn Festival [1][3]. Market Summary - As of the week ending August 8, 2025, the main egg futures contract closed at 3362 yuan per 500 kg, with a weekly decline of 3.97% [1]. - The opening price for the week was 3450 yuan per 500 kg, reaching a high of 3450 yuan and a low of 3306 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 7, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported an increase of 4 warehouse receipts to 17 [2]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas remained stable, with Shandong at 5.65 yuan/kg, Hebei at 5.58 yuan/kg (up 0.06), Guangdong at 6.60 yuan/kg, and Beijing at 6.08 yuan/kg [2]. - The national laying hen stock was approximately 1.356 billion as of July, with a month-on-month increase of 1.19% and a year-on-year increase of 6.19% [2]. - The theoretical forecast for August's laying hen stock is 1.363 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.52% [2]. Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the current high stock of laying hens and the pressure from newly added hens are contributing to an oversupply of eggs, compounded by weak terminal demand and increased competition from substitutes due to high temperatures [3]. - Southwest Futures notes that egg supply may continue to increase year-on-year in August, with lower-than-expected sales during the stocking period and rising temperatures affecting consumption [3]. - There is an expectation of supply pressure easing in October, suggesting a potential strategy of holding positions from September to October [3].
消费备货期走货不及预期 鸡蛋可考虑9-10反套持有
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-10 23:20