下游行业疲弱格局难解 沪铝等待反弹后沽空机会

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by supply constraints, seasonal demand, and macroeconomic factors, with a focus on price movements and inventory levels. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 8, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 20,685 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.03% [1] - The weekly trading range was between 20,460 yuan/ton and 20,830 yuan/ton, with a reduction in open interest by 11,717 contracts compared to the previous week [1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory - In the fifth week of July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 611,900 tons of bauxite and alumina, a 37.77% increase from 444,100 tons in August of the previous year [2] - As of August 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 91,300 tons, while the inventory in Guangdong was 20,000 tons, totaling 111,300 tons, which is an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous week [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - According to Jianxin Futures, the supply of bauxite is tightening due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and the resumption of production at some mines may limit the extent of the shortage [3] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, with seasonal demand still weak, leading to an increase in inventory [3] - Zhonghui Futures reported that the fully loaded cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry in July was 16,261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7% month-on-month, with the latest inventory of aluminum ingots at 564,000 tons, up by 20,000 tons from the previous week [3]