Workflow
光大证券:下半年市场将开启下一阶段上涨行情 并有望突破2024年同期阶段性高点
智通财经网·2025-08-10 23:32

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is expected to enter a new phase of upward momentum in the second half of the year, potentially breaking through the peak of the second half of 2024 due to a shift from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven market dynamics [1][3][4] - The A-share market showed positive performance last week, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index rising, while the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices lagged behind [2][3] - Domestic market performance is supported by both internal and external favorable factors, including a weak U.S. labor market and proactive domestic policies, which are expected to bolster asset prices [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July indicated a lower-than-expected increase of 73,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2%, leading to heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [4][5] - Domestic policies remain actively supportive, with multiple measures being implemented, and the fundamental economic indicators show resilience, such as a 7.2% year-on-year increase in exports in July [5][6] - The market is advised to focus on short-term sectors that have lagged and those likely to benefit from improved overseas liquidity, as well as long-term themes in consumption, technological independence, and dividend stocks [6]