智通财经网·2025-08-10 23:48Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that poor economic and employment data in the U.S., combined with the nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve, strengthens market expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a rally in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. GDP for Q2 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.9%, marking the first contraction since Q2 2022 [3] - July's non-farm payrolls added only 150,000 jobs, below the expected 180,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.0%, the highest level in 2023 [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Market Expectations - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 93.6% due to the economic data and the appointment of a more dovish member [3] - The anticipated rate cut is expected to weaken the dollar, enhancing the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic initiatives to optimize production factors and improve profitability across various sectors are expected to facilitate the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream industries [4] - Supply constraints exist in the non-ferrous metals sector, with limited new copper mines and insufficient capital expenditure affecting supply growth [4] Group 4: Valuation and Market Trends - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for non-ferrous metals are considered low, with copper PE nearing 10 times and aluminum PE dropping to 7-8 times, indicating potential for upward revision [5] - The combination of a favorable monetary environment, improved consumption expectations, and constrained supply is expected to drive prices of industrial metals upward [5]