新房悄悄回暖，“好城市+好房子”机会来了⋯⋯

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing a divergence between new and second-hand housing prices, with new home prices showing structural growth while second-hand home prices are declining [2][4][7]. New Housing Market - In July, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,877 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.64% [2][4]. - First-tier cities are leading the new housing price growth, with a month-on-month increase of 0.36% in July, driven by high-end improvement projects [4]. - Second-tier cities also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.23%, with Hangzhou leading at 1.51% and Chengdu following at 1.3% [4]. - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities faced pressure, with a month-on-month decline of 0.19% [4]. - The overall transaction volume in the new housing market showed a seasonal decline, with 30 key cities recording a total transaction area of 8.36 million square meters in July [4]. Policy Environment - The Central Urban Work Conference on July 15 emphasized a shift from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, proposing new models for real estate development [7]. - Various local governments are implementing policies to stimulate the new housing market, such as lifting housing sales restrictions in Chengdu and optimizing housing loan policies [7]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,585 yuan per square meter in July, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.77% and a year-on-year decline of 7.32% [2][9]. - First-tier cities experienced a month-on-month price drop of 0.61%, while second-tier and third/fourth-tier cities saw declines of 0.84% and 0.77%, respectively [9][11]. - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in 14 key cities decreased by 1.83% month-on-month and 9.05% year-on-year in July, indicating a weakening market [9][11]. - Despite a cumulative increase in transaction volume for the first seven months of the year, the market is showing signs of weakness with a "high first, low later" trend [9][11]. Market Dynamics - The increase in second-hand housing listings has led to a total of approximately 1.982 million listings in 14 key cities by the end of July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.7% [12]. - The average de-stocking period for second-hand homes in key cities was 16.8 months in July, indicating a slight increase in pressure to sell [12]. - The second-hand housing market is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year, with potential downward pressure on both volume and prices if no significant external factors emerge [12].