重要会议稳定预期，债市拐点将至？

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The core viewpoint for the bond market is summarized as "supportive factors, mid-term positive" [2] - Three main reasons are identified: real demand mismatch, policy support, and emotional adjustment [2] - The current demand and supply mismatch remains unresolved, with PPI being negative for 33 consecutive months, indicating a need for demand-side cooperation with supply-side reforms [2] - Recent political meetings emphasized the need for sustained macro policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies to support the bond market [2] - Market sentiment has adjusted, with a significant opportunity for rebound in the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) after a nearly 1% maximum drawdown in less than 20 trading days [2] Group 2: Equity Market Insights - The core viewpoint for the equity market is "normal pullback, bullish trend" [3] - The equity market shows a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above the 5-day moving average for ten consecutive trading days, indicating strong market momentum [3] - The current pullback is seen as a normal reaction to rapid gains, with market consensus on long-term confidence in the economy and the potential positive impact of "anti-involution" policies [3] - Technical analysis indicates multiple support levels, with the market forming a "slow bull" pattern after breaking through the 3600-point mark [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Both equity and bond markets present significant investment opportunities despite recent pullbacks, driven by different underlying logic [4] - For bond market investments, the recommendation is to allocate to the ten-year government bond ETF (511260), which is considered to have good allocation value due to its benchmark status [4] - Investors are advised to be cautious with longer-duration and higher-volatility products, as they may carry certain risks [4]