陶冬：对于经济是否陷入衰退，美股美债产生巨大分歧

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence between the stock and bond markets regarding the future economic outlook, which is rare in recent years [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only 73,000 jobs added, marking the worst performance since the pandemic, leading to heightened recession concerns [1][2]. - The 5-year Treasury yield indicates a 60% recession risk, while the S&P 500 reflects only an 8% probability, and high-yield credit markets suggest a mere 6% chance of recession [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. stocks have continued to rise, primarily driven by a few AI-themed tech giants, while the broader S&P 500 performance remains mediocre [2]. - The bond market has seen a significant influx of funds into high-yield corporate bonds, indicating a different sentiment compared to the stock market [1][2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is under strong influence from the White House, with expectations of potential rate cuts due to deteriorating employment conditions [2][4]. - The nomination of Milken to the Federal Reserve Board could increase the likelihood of a rapid resumption of rate cuts, with predictions of at least two to three cuts before January [4]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - The European Central Bank has aggressively cut rates this year, nearing neutral levels, while the U.S. may see a contrasting trend in interest rates, affecting capital flows and exchange rates [5]. - Upcoming focus includes U.S.-China trade negotiations and inflation data, which are expected to rise due to tariff impacts [5].