反内卷显效7月PPI环比降幅收窄，化工ETF(159870)涨超1%

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows signs of narrowing decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year drop of 3.6%, indicating potential stabilization in the chemical industry [1] Group 1: PPI and Industry Trends - The PPI's month-on-month decline has narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, while the year-on-year decline remains at 3.6%, consistent with the previous month [1] - The upstream sectors, including extraction, raw materials, and processing industries, have shown a more pronounced narrowing of month-on-month declines, suggesting that policies targeting mid-to-upstream industries are having a significant impact [1] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a rebound in PPI growth, as historical data indicates that the chemical sector often outperforms the CSI 300 index following a PPI turning point [1] Group 2: Chemical Industry Investment Outlook - The chemical sector has experienced a three-year downtrend, with PPI in continuous deflation for 33 months, nearing the end of a historical deflation cycle [3] - Fixed asset investment in the industry is projected to turn negative by May 2025, signaling the end of the capacity expansion cycle, which historically leads to price increases within 6-12 months [3] - The exit of overseas capacity, such as the closure of TDI production lines in Europe and delays in U.S. shale gas projects, combined with domestic policy and global supply-demand improvements, strengthens the expectation of a sector reversal [3] Group 3: Market Activity and ETF Performance - The chemical ETF (159870) has seen significant net inflows, with 315 million in the last five days, 1.176 billion in the last ten days, and 2.588 billion in the last twenty days, indicating strong market interest [3] - The ETF has become the most actively traded product in the market, reflecting a positive feedback loop between policy-driven sector expectations and market capital flows [3] - As of August 11, 2025, the chemical industry theme index (000813) rose by 1.36%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Kingfa Technology (9.99%) and Sinoma Science & Technology (8.98%) [4]