通胀趋缓失业率上升 澳洲联储8月降息已成定局

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is trading around 0.65 against the US dollar, with a slight increase of 0.03% from the previous close of 0.6524 [1] - A Reuters survey indicates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% on August 12 [1][2] - The inflation rate in Australia has dropped to 2.1%, the lowest in nearly four years, which is close to the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%, allowing for potential further rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-and-a-half-year high, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand and suggesting that monetary policy may need to become less restrictive [2] - Over 90% of surveyed respondents expect another 25 basis points cut by the end of the year, bringing the cash rate down to 3.35% [2] - Major Australian banks, including ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac, forecast the cash rate to be 3.35% by year-end [2] Group 3 - The daily chart indicators have not confirmed a bullish bias, indicating that the AUD/USD needs to maintain above the 0.6500 level to support further upward movement [3] - If the AUD/USD breaks above 0.6600 with sustained buying, prices could rise to 0.6640 and potentially reach 0.6700 [3]