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美联储降息存疑 通胀粘性或致零次行动
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-11 04:22

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the skepticism surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts this year, with a strong emphasis on persistent inflation concerns and the impact of upcoming appointments to the Federal Reserve Board [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The most likely scenario is that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once this year, with the possibility of no cuts being even greater [1]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained a consistent communication strategy and is exercising caution in its decision-making process [1]. - The appointment of a new Federal Reserve governor by President Trump could alter the voting dynamics within the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The core reason for skepticism about rate cuts is the persistent issue of inflation, which the Federal Reserve has repeatedly highlighted [1]. - Despite previously downplaying the impact of employment data, the Federal Reserve's recent stance appears to be shifting, although significant deterioration in the job market is needed to justify rate cuts [1]. - There are concerns that inflation may remain high or even worsen, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy decisions if rate cuts are implemented under such conditions [1]. Group 3: Market Indicators - The current dollar index is reported at 98.07, reflecting a decline of 0.20% from an opening price of 98.27 [1]. - The dollar index has faced resistance at the 98.50 level after breaking through daily support last week, indicating potential for further upward movement if it stabilizes [1].